矿井涌水对大气降水响应的非线性研究

Nonlinear study on the response of mine water inflow to atmospheric precipitation

矿井涌水量是煤矿安全生产的一个重要基础性指标,深部矿井涌水量与地表水、地下水之间的定量关系一直是水文过程研究的一个难点问题。本文采用Mann-Kendall检验法、R/S分析法、GM(1,2)模型和现场分析等方法,以平煤七矿为例,研究矿井涌水量对降水量变化的响应。结果表明:降水量序列Hurst指数为0.3677,该序列具有反持续性,其平均循环周期为5个月;涌水量序列Hurst指数为0.8973,该序列具有正持续性,其平均循环周期为20个月;降水量对矿井涌水量的影响滞后1.5~3个月。以此为基础建立矿井涌水量的GM(1,2)预测模型,预测精度达到了94.25%。该模型对同类型矿井涌水量预测具有借鉴价值。

Mine water inflow is an important basic index of coal mine safety production.The quantitative research of the relationship between deep mine water inrush,surface water and groundwater has been a difficult problem in the study of hydrological process.The Mann-Kendall test,R/S analysis,GM(1,2)model and on-site analysis method were used to study the response of mine water inflow to the change of precipitation in Pingmei No.7 Mine.The results showed that:(1)The Hurst index of precipitation series was 0.3677,which had an inverse persistence and its average cycle was 5 months;(2)The Hurst index of the water inflow series was 0.8973,which had a positive persistence and the average cycle period of mine water inflow series was 20 months.Precipitation impact on mine water inflow would be 1.5~3 months later.On this basis,a GM(1,2)prediction model of mine inflow was established,and the prediction accuracy reached 94.25%.This model had reference value for the same type of mine to establish the water inflow prediction model.