贵阳市人口老龄化的乡镇空间格局变化研究

The spatial pattern changes of population aging in township in Guiyang City

探究区域人口老龄化空间变化特征,可为地区人口老龄化问题解决,人口、经济和社会差异化发展规划提供参考。基于第五次和第六次人口普查乡、镇、街道数据(2000年、2010年),采用空间自相关分析、变异系数法和空间冷热点分析对贵阳市人口老龄化的空间格局变化进行研究。结果表明:1)2000年贵阳人口老龄化在空间上呈现中心高、近郊次之和远郊低的特点,2010年则呈现中心高、远郊次之和近郊低状态;2000—2010年人口老龄化空间变动呈由内到外的城市圈层递增态势。2)2000—2010年贵阳市乡镇老龄化在全局空间上集聚效应放缓,而局部空间自相关以正向空间彼此连接。3)2000—2010年贵阳市各乡镇人口老龄化变异系数大体呈现由近郊区龚家寨街道向外先递减再增加规律。4)2000—2010年贵阳市老龄化冷热点空间呈现显著的转移与扩散态势。

To explore the spatial variation characteristics of regional population aging can provide an important reference for regional population,economic and social development planning.Based on the fifth and sixth population census township,town,and street data(2000,2010),the spatial pattern of population aging in Guiyang was analyzed by using spatial auto-correlation analysis,coefficient of variation method,and spatial cold spot analysis.The results show that:1)In 2000,the aging population of Guiyang showed spatial characteristics of high in center,second in suburbs,and low in outer suburbs.But it showed the state of high in center,second in outer suburbs,and low in suburbs at space in 2010.From 2000 to 2010,the spatial changes of population aging showed an increasing trend of urban circles from inside to outside.2)During 2000—2010,the aging effect of the aging of towns and villages in Guiyang City is slowing down in the global space,while the local space is auto-correlated to connect with each other in the positive space.3)From 2000 to 2010,the coefficient of variation of population aging in various towns and villages in Guiyang City generally shows the law of decreasing first and then increasing from the outside of Gongjiazhai Street in the suburbs.4)Between 2000—2010,the aging of cold&hot spots in Guiyang City showed a significant shift and spread.