异质性条件下中国地区工业产能利用率的估测——基于KLH模型和BC模型的比较分析

Estimation of Industrial Capacity Utilization Ratio of Different Provinces in China under Heterogeneity

去过剩产能是供给侧结构性改革的重要内容,准确测算产能利用率则是理解并解决产能过剩问题的关键。利用KLH模型和BC模型分别测算了2003—2016年中国各地区的产能利用率,并对两种模型的测算结果进行了比较分析。测算结果表明,KLH模型测算的2003—2016年中国各地区规模以上工业企业产能利用率整体均值介于87.3%~94.5%,而BC模型的测算结果介于59.33%~70.57%之间。之所以两者测算结果差异明显,BC模型测算的产能利用率总体比KLH模型要低,是因为:BC模型设定标准较高,自然导致测算的整体水平较低;KLH模型根据各地区具体情况设定标准,测算值的整体水平较高。从测算置信度看,KLH模型本身就是BC模型的升级,其具备以下两个特点:一是可区分时变性产能利用率和持久性产能利用率;二是充分考虑地区异质性,从方法上KLH模型要更先进,使用相同数据时的测算要更可靠。

To eliminate excess capacity is an important part of supply-side structural reform,and to accurate measurement of capacity utilization is the key to understand and solve the problem of overcapacity.The KLH model and the BC model are used to calculate the capacity utilization ratio of various regions in China from 2003 to 2016,and the comparative analysis is carried out.The results show that the overall average capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above the scale of China in 2003-2016 is between 87.3%and 94.5%calculated by the KLH model,while the calculation result of BC model is between 59.33%and 70.57%.The difference between the two is obvious,the capacity utilization ratio of BC model is low,and the capacity utilization ratio of KLH model is high.The main reason for above differences is that the BC model setting standard is higher,which naturally leads to the lower overall level of calculation,and the KLH model sets the standard according to the specific conditions of each region,and the overall level of the calculated value is higher.The KLH model itself is the upgrade of the BC model,which has the following two characteristics:one is it can distinguish time-varying capacity utilization ratio and the persistent capacity utilization ratio,and the other is to fully consider regional heterogeneity.Second,regional heterogeneity should be fully considered.Methodically,KLH model is undoubtedly more advanced and more reliable than BC model when using the same data.