“候鸟式”流动亦或“永久”迁移?--基于社会融入视角的公共服务可及性与人口流迁选择

Migratory-Bird Flow or Permanent Migration?—Public Services Accessibility and Population Migration Options Based on the Perspective of Social Integration

本文基于近年来中国部分流动人口“流而不迁”的典型事实,利用中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)和城市特征的匹配数据,构建公共服务可及性综合指数,使用IV-probit和PSM方法,探索迁入地的公共服务可及性对流动人口永久迁移意愿的影响及内在逻辑。研究结果表明,公共服务可及性显著提升了流动人口的永久迁移意愿,降低了“流而不迁”的暂时性迁居概率,且该结论在考虑了内生性问题和自选择问题后仍然稳健;公共服务可及性的“人口迁移效应”因地区差异、城市级别、户口类型、家庭规模而存在显著的群体异质性,因流动性质、个体特征而存在显著的个体异质性。进一步研究显示,主观社会融入感在公共服务可及性的“人口迁移效应”中发挥中介机制作用,公共服务可及性对主观社会融入感具有正向影响,提升了流动个体的永久迁移意愿。基于流动人口福利改进的伦理目标,本文认为:公共部门应兼顾公共服务的地区均等化和类别均等化;注重流动人口多维度、综合性的公共服务可及性水平提升;优化公共信息的传播路径并拓展流动个体对公共服务的表达渠道和参与范围,从而实现公共资源的最优配置。

Based on the typical fact that some migrants in China have flowed but not moved in recent years,this paper uses the matching data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS)and urban characteristics to construct a comprehensive index of public service accessibility,using the IV-probit and the PSM methods,and explores the impact and internal logic of the public services accessibility in the place of immigration on the willingness to migrate permanently.It is found that the public services accessibility significantly increased the willingness of migrants to migrate permanently,and reduced the probability of temporary resettlement that flows but does not move.This conclusion has empirical robustness,and it becomes more prominent after considering the problem of endogenousness and self-selection.The population migration effect of public service accessibility has significant group heterogeneity due to regional differences,city levels,household registration types and family size,and significant individual heterogeneity due to mobility and individual characteristics.Further,subjective social integration plays a mediating role in the population migration effect of public service accessibility,and public service accessibility has a positive impact on subjective social integration perception,increasing the permanent migration willingness of mobile individuals.Based on the ethical objectives of improving the welfare of the floating population,this paper argues that the public sector should take into account regional equalization and category equalization of public services,focus on improving the multi-dimensional and comprehensive public service accessibility of the floating population,optimize the transmission path of public information,and expand the flow of channels and the scope of participation of floating individuals in public services to achieve the optimal allocation of public resources.