政府背景客户、市场认知与投资机会——基于供应链整合视角

Government-based Customer,Market Perception and Investment Opportunity--Based on Supply Chain Integration

在政府补助日渐收紧的大背景下,以政府采购为代表的政策方法日渐成为政府调控经济的重要手段。本文利用2007—2015年间上市公司的客户数据,系统考察了政府背景大客户对市场认知与投资机会的影响。实证结果表明,政府背景客户能有效提升资本市场对企业的估值水平,增强投资者对企业的关注程度,并显著提升了分析师对公司股票的评级;进一步的研究还发现,政府背景客户与股票投资收益间存在显著的正向关系,投资者可以通过构建对冲交易策略,买入政府背景客户订单比例较高的企业股票而卖出政府背景客户订单比例较低的股票,从而获得显著为正的投资回报;最后,政府背景客户对市场认知水平的影响很有可能是通过对企业盈利能力的提升来实现的。

This paper tries to test the relationship between market perception and government-based customer based on the client data of Chinese listed firms.The results show that government-based customer could obviously increase firm value and analysts’recommendation,and attract more investors’attention as well.Moreover,this study develops a hedge strategy for investors to buy stakes of the companies with more government-based customers,and sell stakes of the companies with less government-based customers.The results show that the hedge strategy can lead to significant excess returns in short and long term.In addition,the results indicate that the relationship we find is attributed to the improvement of profitability.Overall,the findings could help us better understand how government-based customer improve market perception,and government could enhance and improve macro-economic regulation to ensure stable and healthy economic development.