转型升级、产业选择与劳动力迁移——基于55个城市2009-2016年的面板数据分析与政策效应的经济解释

Transformation and Upgrading,Industry Selection and Labor Migration——Panel Data Analysis Based on 55 Cities in 2009-2016 and Economic Explanation of Policy Effects

随着中国经济进入新的发展阶段,各省市的地方政府均逐步将政策重心转向产业的转型与升级,并表现出政策导向上的趋同。地方政府主导推动的产业转型升级政策,其效果会受到当地比较优势的影响,进而影响流动人口数量。当地方第二产业占优指数越大时,地方政府因推动产业升级而挤出的流动人口数量也会越多。机制研究显示,转型政策会增加企业数量并加剧市场竞争,这将影响企业规模进而影响人口流向。虽然,金融手段能够在一定程度上缓和政府政策的消极影响,但市场化水平却对这类政府政策不具有调节作用。此外,转型政策还会对就业结构、政府税收、固定资产造成一定影响。地方政府如违背本地区比较优势而过早推进产业转型升级可能还会导致人为挤出劳动力。因此,政府政策应当遵循产业发展规律,以服务产业发展而非指导产业发展为宗旨。

As China’s economy enters a new stage,local governments in all provinces and cities have gradually changed their priority to industrial transformation and upgrading,exhibitinga tendency of policy convergence.This study finds that the effect of local government-led industrial transformation and upgrading policies will be affected by local comparative advantages,which in turn will affect the number of floating population.When the index of local secondary industry is greater,the number of floating population crowded out due to local government’s promotion of industrial upgrading will also increase.The mechanism study shows that the transformation policy will increase the number of enterprises and intensify market competition,which will affect the size of the enterprises and then the population flow.The research also finds that financial means can alleviate the negative effects of government policies to a certain extent,but the level of marketization does not have a regulating effect on such government policies.In addition,the transformation policy will also have an impact on employment structure,government tax revenue,and fixed assets.This paper shows that premature advancement of industrial transformation and upgrading by local governments in violation of comparative advantage may lead to artificial crowding out of labor.Therefore,government policies should follow the law of industrial development,and serve the development of the industry instead of guiding the development of the industry.