城市化、城乡收入差距和经济增长的影响关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Urbanization,Urban-rural Income Gap and Economic Growth

本文基于全国1978至2017年的时间序列数据,构建向量自回归模型实证分析了城市化、城乡收入差距及经济增长三个变量间的影响关系,根据脉冲响应分析和格兰杰因果检验得到结果:城市化对城乡收入差距的影响效应随时间推移由正向转为负向,城市化和经济增长存在相互正向影响关系。最后从我国城乡二元结构、要素市场、制度优化等角度提出相关建议。

It is of great significance to analyze the evolution of urban-rural income gap and the change of economic growth in the context of the continuous improvement of urbanization rate to promote the integration of urban and rural areas and the stable development of economy in the new era.Based on the time series data from 1978 to 2017,this paper constructs a vector autoregressive model to analyze the relationship among urbanization,urban-rural income gap and economic growth.The results are obtained by impulse response analysis and Granger causality test:The effect of urbanization on the income gap between urban and rural areas changes from positive to negative over time.There is a positive relationship between urbanization and economic growth.Finally,some suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of urban-rural dual structure,factor market and system optimization.