农村金融发展对农业经济增长的空间溢出效应分析——基于1978—2016年省级面板数据

Analysis of Spatial Spillover Effect of Rural Financial Development on Agricultural Economic Growth——based on provincial panel data from 1978 to 2016

利用我国1978—2016年30个省份的面板数据,阐述农村金融发展对农业经济增长的作用机理,将空间自回归模型(SAR)分析可观测因素与空间误差模型(SEM)分析不可观测因素相结合,比较分析农村金融对农业经济增长的空间溢出效应。研究结果表明农业经济增长存在空间相关性且相关程度逐年递增,相邻地区之间农业经济增长的相互影响作用不断增强;农村金融对农业经济增长具有正向影响且作用在不断提升,但农村金融所发挥的作用呈现区域特征,在东部区、中部区、西部区呈依次递减状态;空间误差模型回归结果表明,本地区的农业经济增长不仅会受到可观测因素的影响,还会受到相邻地区金融意识、信用观念等不可观测因素的影响,且这种影响程度在东部区、中部区、西部区处于依次递增状态。

In this paper,the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1978 to 2016 is used to explain the mechanism of rural financial development on agricultural economic growth.The observable factors of spatial autoregressive model(SAR)analysis and the unobservable factors of spatial error model(SEM)analysis Combined,comparative analysis of the spatial spillover effect of rural finance on agricultural economic growth.The results of the study show that there is a spatial correlation of agricultural economic growth and the degree of correlation is increasing year by year.The mutual influence of agricultural economic growth between neighboring regions is constantly increasing.The rural finance has a positive impact on agricultural economic growth and The role of rural finance continues to increase,but the role played by rural finance presents regional characteristics,which are in decreasing order in the eastern,central and western regions;the regression results of the spatial error model show that the agricultural economic growth in this region will not only be affected by observable factors.The impact will also be affected by unobservable factors such as financial consciousness and credit concepts in neighboring areas,and the degree of this impact will increase in the order of the eastern,central and western regions.