东道国交通基础设施质量对双边贸易合作的影响——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析

The Impact of National Transportation Infrastructure Quality on Bilateral Trade Cooperation:An Empirical Analysis of the Countries along the Belt and Road

交通基础设施是实现"一带一路"沿线国家"互联互通"的重要纽带和桥梁。以"一带一路"沿线82个国家为研究样本,以2006~2017年为研究期间,运用面板数据模型研究东道国交通基础设施质量及不同类别交通基础设施质量对双边贸易合作的影响。研究发现:综合来看,东道国交通基础设施质量能够显著促进双边贸易合作,质量水平每提升1个单位,双边贸易额增长约3个单位;中国GDP、东道国GDP和经济自由度指数均能够显著促进双边贸易合作,而东道国人均GDP影响较弱,双边贸易合作存在"邻国效应"和"贸易惯性";从不同类别交通基础设施研究发现,港口设施质量对双边贸易促进作用最大,公路设施质量影响次之,航空设施质量影响最弱,铁路设施质量影响存在滞后性;加入亚洲基础设施投资银行能够显著促进沿线国家双边贸易合作,表明"一带一路"倡议得到沿线国家积极响应,"设施联通"稳步推进,"互联互通"取得阶段性成果。

Transportation infrastructure is an important link and bridge for the"interconnected"countries along the Belt and Road.This paper selects 82 countries along the route from 2006 to 2017 as research objects,using gravity model to study the total quality of transportation infrastructure in host countries and the impact of sub-category transportation infrastructure iuality on trade cooperation.The paper finds:the quality of the transportation infrastructure of the host country has significantly promoted bilateral trade cooperation,with a 1%increase in quality and a 3%increase in bilateral trade;China’s GDP,the host country’s GDP,and its Economic Freedom Index all significantly promote bilateral trade cooperation,while the host country’s per capita GDP is weak,and bilateral trade cooperation has"neighboring effect"and"trade inertia".In terms of categories,the quality of port facilities has the greatest effect on bilateral trade,the quality of highway facilities is second,the quality of aviation facilities is the weakest,and the quality of railway facilities has"lag".Joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has significantly promoted bilateral trade cooperation.In the Belt and Road Initiatives,facilities connection has received positive response,and interconnection has achieved initial results.