积温约束、价格市场化与玉米种植户决策响应分析

ANALYSIS ON THE ADJUSTMENT AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF FARMERS′PLANTING INTENTION UNDER THE MARKET-ORIENTED REFORM OF PRICE AND ACCUMULATED TEMPERATURE CONSTRAINT

[目的]积温是影响农户种植品种选择的核心因素之一,探索其在玉米价格市场化改革下,农户种植品种调整意愿中的具体作用,对农业支持政策效果评价及进一步改进方向具有重要的现实意义。[方法]基于理想作物选择逻辑,利用黑龙江省13个地市47个村的调查数据,应用多元逻辑回归模型,分析样本农户种植品种意愿调整行为,探讨农户作物品种调整的影响因素。[结果]核心变量积温带虚拟变量(气候条件)对作物选择具有显著性作用,与规模维持不变组对比,该变量在玉米农户调减意愿中作用显著(系数为0.461)。在决定农户品种种植意愿调整的其他影响因素中,耕地面积在玉米调减意愿中呈现负向影响;家庭人口结构和收入项在种植意愿调整中并没有呈现显著性影响。[结论]“市场化采购+生产者补贴”政策明显对玉米面积调减起到了促进作用,但在各个积温带约束下,新政在农户调减决策中的作用强度存在差异。因此,建议种植结构调整应区别对待不同积温带的收益差距现实,促进政策支持效果向着符合市场需求、遵循自然资源约束、弱化对相关品种市场供求造成扭曲的方向转变。

Accumulated temperature is one of the core factors that affect farmers′choice of planting varieties.It is of great practical significance to explore the willingness and influencing factors of farmers′planting structure adjustment under the marketization reform of agricultural products and to evaluate the effect of agricultural support policy and further improve the direction.Based on the Ideal Crop mode and the samples from 47 villages in 13 cities of Heilongjiang province,this research applied the Multinomial Logistic regression model to analyze the adjustment of farmers′planting intention and the influencing factors of the adjustment of crop varieties.The results were showed as follows.Virtual variable of the accumulated temperature belt was proved that resources(conditions)had the significant role for crops choice in the corn(0.461),arable land in corn lowered intend to present positive influence but the family structure and the income items did not show significant effect as well.The research indicates that the policy of marketization plus producer subsidy promote the decrease of corn area obviously.Therefore,it is recommended that the planting structure adjustment should be different because of income gap caused by different the accumulated temperature belt and promote the policy effect to meet the market demand to follow the natural resource constraints,weakening of the distortion caused by varieties of market supply and demand.