基于QAR超限事件的可控飞行撞地风险分析与对策研究

Study on the Risk Analysis and Countermeasures of Controllable Flight into Terrain Based on QA R over-limit events

为了定量研究航空公司的可控飞行撞地风险,选取与其密切相关的监控项目作为评价指标,利用层次分析法确定不同超限事件的权重,结合风险指数评价法和海因里希法则,建立了一种基于QAR超限事件的可控飞行撞地风险评价方法,并首次提出了飞行品质指数(FQI)的概念。利用该模型对某航空公司2015年至2018年的可控飞行撞地风险进行评价并验证。结果表明:该公司在2015年至2017年可控飞行撞地风险逐年增大,在2018年该风险呈下降趋势。这一结果与该公司的实际情况吻合,表明该模型适用于评价航空公司安全运行水平。

In order to quantitatively study the risk of CFIT for airlines,Select the monitoring items closely relat⁃ed to the risk of CFIT as the evaluation index,AHP is used to determine the weight of different over-limit events,combined with the risk index evaluation method and Heinrich's law,a risk evaluation method of CFIT based on QAR over-limit events is established,a concept of flight quality index(FQI)is firstly presented.The model is used to evaluate and verify the CFIT risk of an airline from 2015 to 2018.The results show that the risk of CFIT increase year by year from 2015 to 2017,and decreases in 2018.This result is consistent with the actual situation of the company,which shows that the model is suitable for evaluating the safe operation level of the airline.