考虑不确定信息的应急案例决策方法

Emergency Case Decision Making Method Considering Uncertain Information

为了提高应急决策方法的有效性,针对应急案例决策中存在不确定信息的问题,提出了一种基于证据推理的广义不确定案例决策方法.运用证据推理计算目标案例与历史案例的问题相似度,再计算目标案例与历史案例的方案相似度,并通过预先设置的相似度阈值构建相似案例集;在此基础上,通过证据推理集结相似度和方案实施效果得到综合效用值,进而依据综合效用值的大小来选择最优预案.最后,使用高层建筑火灾案例来验证该方法的可行性与有效性.

To improve the effectiveness of emergency decisions,this paper proposes a general uncertain case-based decision making method grounded on evidential reasoning to solve the problem of uncertain information in emergency decision making.First,the problem similarities between the target case and the historical cases are calculated by evidence reasoning.Then,the alternative similarities between the target case and the historical cases are calculated.On this basis,the similarity case set is constructed by the preset similarity threshold.Furthermore,the comprehensive utilities are obtained through evidence reasoning to aggregate similarities and alternative implement effect,with the desirable alternative selected according to the comprehensive utilities.Finally,a high-rise building fire emergency decision-making case is given to explain the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.