洞庭湖区生态承载力动态特征与趋势预测

Dynamic characteristics and trend prediction of ecological carrying capacity in Dongting Lake area

利用状态空间法对洞庭湖区2005、2010和2015年生态承载力演变状况进行了评价,并通过灰色预测模型对2020年和2025年洞庭湖区生态承载力情况进行了模拟预测。结果表明,2005—2015年洞庭湖区生态承载力呈现出上升趋势,除资源环境承载力外,生态弹性力和社会经济协调力均处于超载状态;2020—2025年洞庭湖区生态承载力预计将继续保持上升趋势,并维持在可载状态,区域自然、经济和社会复杂动态系统稳定度和协调度均有所回升;生态弹性力与社会经济协调力是生态承载力提高的主要制约因素,洞庭湖区未来应进一步积极转变经济发展方式,着力提升生态系统自我调节和自我维持的能力。

The state space method was used to evaluate the evolution of ecological carrying capacity in Dongting Lake area in 2005,2010 and 2015.The ecological carrying capacity of Dongting Lake area in 2020 and 2025 was simulated and predicted by grey prediction model.The results showed that the ecological carrying capacity of Dongting Lake area exhibited an upward trend from 2005 to 2015.In addition to the carrying capacity of resources and environment,the ecological resilience and social and economic coordination were in a state of overload.From 2020 to 2025,the ecological carrying capacity of Dongting Lake area was expected to continue to increase and remain in the loadable state.Stability and coordination degree of the complex natural,economic and social dynamic system in the area will rise to some extent.The ecological resilience and the coordination of social economy were the main restricting factors for the improvement of ecological carrying capacity.In the future,Dongting Lake area should further transform the economic development mode and strive to improve the ability of ecological system self-regulation and self-maintenance.