贸易开放、技术进步与农业经济增长的关系研究

Study on the relationship between trade opening,technological progress and agricultural economic growth

采用2000—2018年的样本数据,基于MS-VAR模型研究贸易开放、技术进步与农业经济增长的关系。结果表明,贸易开放、技术进步与农业经济增长的相关性存在2个明显的区制。现阶段,扩大贸易开放能够对农业经济增长起到极大的促进作用,政府应当有效利用贸易开放、技术进步与农业经济增长相互促进的发展阶段,保障农业经济的快速和持续增长。通过区制转换概率矩阵,可以发现贸易开放、技术进步与农业经济增长的关系较为稳定。因此,政府应当着眼于制定促进贸易开放、技术进步的长期政策。由脉冲响应分析可知,从区制1到区制2的转换过程中,贸易开放与技术进步对农业经济增长的冲击反应逐渐增大,在当前阶段,要着重把握贸易开放、技术进步的提升以促进农业经济增长。

Based on the sample data from 2000 to 2018 and MS-VAR model,this study analyzed the relationship between trade opening,technological progress and agricultural economic growth.The results showed that,there are two obvious regional systems in the relationship between trade opening,technological progress and agricultural economic growth.At present,the expansion of trade opening can play a great role in promoting agricultural economic growth.The government should make effective use of the development stage of mutual promotion of trade opening,technological progress and agricultural economic growth,so as to ensure the rapid and sustained growth of agricultural economy.Through the transformation probability matrix of regional system,we can find that the relationship between trade opening,technological progress and agricultural economic growth is relatively stable.Therefore,the government should focus on formulating long-term policies to promote agricultural economic growth.From the analysis of impulse response,it can be seen that in the process of transformation from regional system 1 to regional system 2,the impact response of trade opening and technological progress on agricultural economic growth increases gradually.In the current stage,we should focus on the promotion of trade opening and technological progress to promote agricultural economic growth.