新疆旅游业与社会经济发展的关系——基于菲德尔双部门模型的研究

The Relationship Between Tourism and Socio-economic Development in Xinjiang:A Research Based on Feder Model

旅游业与社会经济增长的关系一直以来都是旅游产业经济研究的重点,尤其是像新疆这样旅游业发展势头迅猛的地区,二者关系的确定更是重中之重。该文引入菲德尔双部门模型,将整个社会经济部门分为旅游部门和非旅游部门,运用2001—2018年新疆地区旅游业和社会经济的面板数据,分析了新疆旅游业对社会经济增长的影响。结果发现:新疆旅游产业对社会经济增长的推动作用主要是通过间接溢出效应,而且这些溢出效应主要产生于旅游资源优质且经济发达的地州市;新疆旅游产业的经济溢出效应明显,但旅游产业链过短;新疆旅游产业还处于投资建设的发展阶段。

The relationship between tourism and social economic growth has always been the researching focus of tourism economic industry, especially for such places as Xinjiang, where tourism is developing rapidly and the determination of such a relationship is a key issue. This paper introduces Feder Model into the study, dividing the whole social and economic sectors into tourism sector and non-tourism sector, and analyses the impact of tourism on social and economic growth in Xinjiang, by using panel data of tourism and non-tourism sectors in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2018. The results show that: firstly, the main path for Xinjiang’s tourism industry promoting social and economic growth is in spillover effect of tourism to related industries, which mainly happens in places with rich tourism resources and better economic situation;secondly, Xinjiang’s tourism industry has obvious economic spillover effect, but the tourism industry chain is very short;thirdly, Xinjiang’s tourism industry is still in the development stage of investment and construction.