我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长——基于科技投入的门槛效应分析

China’s Rural Financial Development and Rural Economic Growth:An Analysis of the Threshold Effect Based on Scientific and Technological Investment

金融发展与经济持续增长两者之间的关系长期以来一直是金融发展理论界探讨的核心内容。该文用1998—2018年中国30个省(市、自治区)(西藏除外)统计数据,采用面板回归门槛模型实证分析不同农业科技投入水平下农村金融发展水平对农村经济增长的影响,并得出农村金融发展存在显著的双重农业科技门槛效应的结论。当农业科技投入处于较低的水平时,农村金融发展对农村经济增长具有显著的负效应影响,随着农业科技投入的提高,农村金融发展对农村经济增长的负向影响逐渐变小,并最终转变为正向影响。因此,要把握农村金融发展对农村经济持续增长的主导作用,既需要农村金融自身发展革新,还必须加大农业科技投入。

The relationship between financial development and sustained economic growth has long been the core content of financial development theory.Based on the statistical data of 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 1998 to 2018,this paper uses the panel regression threshold model to empirically analyze the impact of rural financial development level on rural economic growth under different levels of agricultural science and technology investment,drawing the conclusion that there is a significant dual agricultural science and technology threshold effect in rural financial development.When the investment in agricultural science and technology is at a low level,rural financial development has a significant negative effect on agricultural economic growth.With the increase of investment in agricultural science and technology,the negative impact of rural financial development on agricultural economic growth gradually decreases,and finally changes into a positive impact.Therefore,to maintain the leading role of rural financial development in the sustainable growth of rural economy,we need not only the development and innovation of rural finance itself,but also the investment in agricultural science and technology.