FDI、碳排放与经济增长--基于“一带一路”沿线国家的面板ARDL模型实证分析

FDI,Carbon Emission and Economic Growth:Empirical Analysis of B&R Countries Based on Panel ARDL Model

为了更好地融入全球经济,让世界搭上中国经济发展的“便车”,“一带一路”倡议的提出无疑给沿线国家带来了深远的影响。本文根据“一带一路”沿线43个国家1995—2014年的面板数据,就FDI、碳排放与经济增长构建面板自回归分布滞后模型。实证结果显示:(1)FDI与碳排放都促进了沿线国家的经济增长,并且具有长期的双向因果关系;(2)经济增长与能源使用效率在短期具有双向因果关系,经济增长带来的能源使用效率提高也因此抑制了一国的碳排放水平;(3)能源使用效率与碳排放之间存在长期双向因果关系,值得注意的是FDI与碳排放之间并不存在因果关系。以上结论也意味着,“一带一路”倡议并没有使沿线国家成为“污染避难地”,反而有助于沿线国家走上可持续发展道路。

In order to better integrate into the global economy and let the world catch the“free ride”of China’s economic development,the proposal of B&R initiative has undoubtedly brought profound influence to countries along the route.Based on the panel data of 43 countries along the B&R route from 1995 to 2014,this paper constructed the panel autoregressive distribution lag model on FDI,carbon emission and economic growth.The empirical results are realistic:(1)Both FDI and carbon emission promote the economic growth of the countries along the B&R route,and there is a bidirectional long-term causal nexus between them;(2)Economic growth and energy efficiency have a bidirectional causal nexus in the short term,and the improvement of energy efficiency brought by economic growth also restrains a country's carbon emission level;(3)There is a long-term bidirectional causal nexus between energy use efficiency and carbon emissions.It is worth noting that there is no causality between FDI and carbon emissions.The above conclusion also means that the B&R initiative did not make countries along the route“pollution refuge”,but helped those countries to develop sustainably.