长汀县三次产业结构变化下的水土流失率

Soil Erosion Rate Under Three Industrial Structure Variations in Changting County

为提高福建省长汀县水土保持的进一步治理效能提供参考,采用Spearman相关性分析法对其1995-2018年水土流失率及三次产业产值占比进行显著性检验,并利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测分析其2019-2022年三次产业产值占比。结果表明:1995-2018年,长汀县水土流失率下降15.59%,产业发展处于从“一二三”向“二三一”的过渡阶段;水土流失率与第一产业产值占比呈显著正相关,与第二、三产业产值占比呈显著负相关;预测2022年长汀县将实现由“一二三”产业结构向“二三一”产业结构的转变,第二、三产业产值占比的差距逐渐缩小。长汀县在发展经济时,可优先发展第二产业,其次为第三产业,调整第一产业结构,实现绿色发展。

In order to provide a reference for further improving the governance efficiency of soil and water conservation in Changting County,Spearman correlation analysis method was used to conduct a significant test of its soil erosion rate and the proportion of the output value of the three industries from 1995 to 2018,and the grey prediction GM(1,1)model was employed to predict and analyze the proportion of the output value of the three industries from 2019 to 2022.Results:From 1995 to 2018,the soil erosion rate in Changting County decreased by 15.59%,and the industrial development was in a transitional stage from"one,two,three"to"two,three,one";The soil erosion rate significantly positively correlated with the output value of the primary industry,while significantly negatively correlated with the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries;It is predicted that Changting County will realize the transformation from the"one,two,three"industrial structure to the"two,three,one"industrial structure in 2022,and proportion gap of the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries is gradually narrowing.When Changting County develops its economy,it can give priority to the development of the secondary industry,followed by the tertiary industry,and adjust the structure of the primary industry to achieve green development.