流通效率提升与消费扩容升级——基于2003-2018年中国省际面板数据的实证研究

Improvement of Circulation Efficiency and Expansion and Upgrading of Consumption:Empirical Research Based on China’s 2003-2018 Inter-provincial Panel Data

流通效率对居民消费发展有着显著影响。本文从消费总量和消费升级两个方面分析流通效率影响居民消费的传导机制,基于2003-2018年我国省级面板数据,在动态面板模型的基础上利用GMM估计方法对该影响机制进行实证考察,实证结果表明:流通效率的提高、流通环境的改善都在一定程度上影响居民收入和消费意愿,从而能够显著推动居民消费的提量扩容;流通效率提高能带来流通成本下降和实际收入增加,居民消费品质提升和消费结构优化,从而能够有效地引致居民消费提档升级;商贸流通业的发展和流通效率的提升推动了区域产业结构的转型,能够有效带动经济发展,继而增加居民收入,在多方面形成联动效应,进而促进居民消费的扩容升级。在此基础上,从整合流通资源、发展现代物流、提高供应链协同效率和推进流通信息化建设等方面提出政策建议。

Circulation efficiency has a significant impact on the development of residents’ consumption. This article analyzes the theoretical mechanism of circulation efficiency affecting residents’ consumption from two aspects of total consumption and consumption upgrade, then, using provincial panel data from 2003 to 2018, based on the dynamic panel model, the GMM estimation method was used to conduct an empirical investigation of the impact mechanism. The empirical results show that: the improvement of the circulation efficiency and the improvement of the circulation environment have affected residents’ income and consumption willingness to a certain extent, which can significantly promote the expansion of residents’ consumption;at the same time, as the reduction in circulation costs and the increase in actual income caused by the increase in circulation efficiency,residents’ consumption quality is improved and consumption structure is optimized, which can effectively lead to the upgrade of residents’ consumption;the development of circulation industry and the improvement of circulation efficiency have driven the transformation of the regional industrial structure, which can effectively promote economic development and then increase the income of residents, that is, form a linkage effect in many ways, and thus promote the expansion and upgrading of residents’ consumption. Policy recommendations are integrating existing circulation resources, vigorously developing modern logistics, improving supply chain coordination efficiency, and strengthening circulation informatization construction.