中国绿色食品供需的耦合时空演变分析

Analysis on Spatio-Temporal Evolution of the Coupling in Supply and Demand of Green Food in China

随着人民生活水平的不断提高,公众对绿色食品的需求量越来越大,因此,分析中国绿色食品的供需情况,对有序推进实现绿色农业产业化意义重大。论文系统构建绿色食品的供给能力和需求潜力的评价宏观指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法和耦合度模型,探索分析了2010—2018年中国31个省份绿色食品的供需耦合时空演变。结果表明:(1)中国整体绿色食品供给和需求潜力的耦合程度较低,需求对供给的弹性系数为3.1,需求潜力的增长速度快于供给能力的提升速度。(2)在中国31个省份中有58.06%的省份绿色食品供需不平衡,其中29.03%的省份供给大于需求,29.03%的省份需求大于供给。(3)从空间分布来看,中国绿色食品供给能力与需求潜力耦合程度高的地区大致呈"T"字型分布,由北方沿海地区向北方边疆地区延伸,耦合程度较低的地区大致呈"Z"字型分布,由东南沿海地区深入到西南内陆地区。

With the continuous improvement of people’s lives and the increasing demand for green foods,analysis of the supply and demand of green food in China is of great significance for the orderly advancement of green agricultural industrialization.The article systematically constructs a macro-index system for evaluating the supply capacity and demand potential of green food.The entropy-TOPSIS method and the coupling degree model are used to explore and analyze the temporal-spatial evolvement of coupling of supply and demand of green food in 31 provinces(cities,autonomous regions)of China from 2010 to 2018.The results show that:(1)The coupling degree of supply and demand potential of green food is low in China.The elasticity coefficient of demand to supply is 3.1,and the growth rate of demand potential is faster than the supply capacity.(2)Among the 31 provinces of China,58.06%of the provinces have imbalanced supply and demand of green food,when 29.03%of the provinces have more supply than demand and 29.03%of the provinces have more demand than supply.(3)From the perspective of spatial distribution,the regions with high coupling degree between supply capacity and demand potential of green food in China are generally“T”-shaped,extending from the northern coastal areas to the northern frontier regions.And the regions with low coupling degree are roughly“Z”-shaped,extending from the southeastern coastal areas to the southwestern inland areas.