不确定性冲击、产业波动与经济政策调控——基于三次疫情时期的对比研究

Uncertainty Shocks,Industrial Fluctuations and Macro-Control:Evidence from the Comparison of Three Typical Epidemic Periods

本文构建TVP-VAR模型详细考察政策不确定性冲击对我国三次产业的非均衡影响,同时还对比三次典型疫情时期的宏观调控经验,主要得出以下几点结论:首先,尽管新冠疫情在资本市场中引起较大恐慌,但其最核心的作用途径仍是服务行业和实体经济,这意味着本轮疫情对经济的冲击具有广泛性、长期性和实际效应;第二,从受冲击最严重的产业来看,后疫情时期第一产业内的价格通胀和第三产业内的需求萎缩尤为值得关注;最后,就本轮疫情过后的宏观调控而言,现阶段适度扩张的货币政策非但不会引发第一产业内的结构性通胀,同时还会有效提振第三产业活力,能够实现宏观调控目标的短期耦合,而合理化税收规制同样有利于规范市场行为,引导第三产业良性发展,二者均不失为疫情时期下宏观调控的有益尝试。

This paper constructs a TVP-VAR model to study the unbalanced impact of policy uncertainty under the epidemic period on China’s three industries,and then compares the experiences of macro-control under three typical epidemic periods,mainly comes to the following conclusions.First,although the COVID-19 pandemichas caused great panic in the capital market,its core influence is still within the service industry and the real economy,which means the current epidemic has broad,long-term and practical effects on the economy.Second,judging from the severity of the industry’s impact,price inflation in the primary industry and shrinking demand in the tertiary industry during the post-epidemic period are particularly worthy of attention.Finally,in terms of macro-control after the current epidemic,moderate expansion of monetary policy will not only keep a suitable inflation in the primary industry,but also effectively boost the vitality of the tertiary industry,so that can achieve the short-term coupling of macro-control objectives.In addition,rational tax regulation also helps regulate market behavior and guide the tertiary industry for benign development.Both of them are beneficial attempts of macroeconomic regulation during the epidemic situation.