基于权重组合分配预测方法的普洱市农产品冷链物流需求预测分析

Forecast and Analysis of Cold Chain Logistics Demand of Agricultural Products in Pu'er City Based on the Method of Weight Combination Distribution

近年来,随着消费趋势的新变化,人们对农产品质量要求越来越高,冷链物流在日常生活中也变得越来越重要。文章研究了普洱市农产品冷链物流需求预测,首先确定农产品冷链物流需求预测指标,然后采用单项预测方法进行预测,在单项预测的基础上采用权重组合分配方法对一些农产品的产量进行预测,并对这些类农产品的冷链物流发展需求做了分析。根据预测结果,普洱市对农产品冷链物流的需求将逐步扩大,普洱市冷链物流亟待进一步发展。其中,冷链需求最大的是蔬菜行业。

In recent years,with the new changes of consumption trend,people have higher and higher requirements for the quality of agricultural products,and cold chain logistics has become more and more important in daily life.In this paper,the demand forecast of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Pu'er city is studied.Firstly,the demand forecast index of cold chain logistics of agricultural products is determined,and then the single forecast method is used to forecast.On the basis of single forecast,the weight combination distribution method is used to forecast the output of some agricultural products.According to the forecast results,the demand for cold chain logistics of Pu'er city will gradually expand.