从贫穷到全面小康:中央一号文件回顾——兼及渔业经济增长的逻辑

From the poverty to the moderately prosperous society in all aspects: a review of No.1 Central Document——the logic of fishery economic growth

中央一号文件对"三农"政策具有纲领性作用,为国家由贫困迈向全面小康做出了巨大贡献。本文系统分析了1982-2020年中央一号文件"三农"政策主题、文本存续、政策工具和演进逻辑,并总结了渔业经济增长的事实及政策规律。研究表明:与我国由"贫困温饱"到"全面小康"的战略阶段基本吻合,"三农"政策在中央一号文件层面经历了"均衡—间断—新均衡"、主题呈动态变化的过程,属性与周期差异使得政策文本存续长短不一,强制型、自愿型、契约型的政策工具分别偏重于体制机制改革、外部因素、财税杠杆,政策演进遵循了"四转变"的逻辑,具有随社会经济发展螺旋式上升的特征。具体到渔业产业,贫困和短缺阶段,以"看不见的手"为主,激发生产积极性以增加供给;解决"温饱"和总体小康阶段,以"有形的手"为主,加强治理规范以提升质量;全面建成小康和新时代阶段,渔业通过"双手并用",调整结构补短板以升级产业。全面小康后,"三农"政策将坚持服务2035年国家战略目标,聚焦资源优化配置、现代要素投入、生态治理与文化传承、城乡一体化等,持续推进农业农村现代化进程。本文可为研判包括渔业在内的"三农"发展战略,以及未来设计有效的政策提供决策参考。

No. 1 Central Document has a programmatic effect on the agriculture policies, and it has made great contributions to the transition from the poverty to the moderately prosperous society in all aspects. The study systematically analyzes the policy theme, text content, policy tools, and evolutionary logic of the No. 1 Central Document from 1982 to 2020, and it summarizes the facts and policy laws of fishery economic growth. The result shows that it is basically in line with China’s strategic stage from the poverty to the moderately prosperous in all aspects. Moreover, agriculture policy has undergone an "equilibrium-discontinuity-new equilibrium" at the level of the No. 1 Central Document, and its theme shows a clear dynamic process. Differences in attributes and cycles make policy contexts vary in length. Compulsory, voluntary, and contractual policy tools respectively focus on institutional reforms, external factors, and support for agriculture. The policy evolution has the transformation logic from problem-oriented to goal-oriented, from tradition elements to modern elements, and from one dimension to comprehensively multiple dimensions. Specific to the fisheries economic, it has a similar logic. At the poverty and shortage stages, policy with "invisible hands" as the mainstay, stimulated enthusiasm for production to increase supply. At the overall well-off stage, policy with "tangible hands" as the mainstay, strengthen governance standards to improve quality. At the building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects stage, policy focus on adjusting structures and making up shortcomings to upgrade the industry by "using both hands". The research can provide decision-making references for analyzing and judging the development strategy of agriculture including fishery, and designing effective policies in the future.