人民币跨境结算的驱动因素--基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据的分析

The Drivers of RMB Cross-Border Settlement--Analysis based on Data from Countries along the Belt and Road

自2009年我国实施人民币跨境结算以来,人民币跨境结算业务迅猛发展,但是仍然受一些因素的影响导致人民币作为跨境结算货币受到限制。通过结算规模、结算结构与结算地区分布三个方面的数据来描述人民币跨境结算的现状,并指出当前人民币跨境结算存在的主要问题。通过选取2010-2017年64个“一带一路”沿线国家的相关数据,从我国与“一带一路”沿线国家的进出口贸易情况、沿线国家的金融市场深度、经济发展水平与我国对沿线国直接投资水平四个因素对人民币跨境结算进行影响因素分析。提出稳步推进人民币资本项目下可自由兑换、加快人民币清算网络建设、深化与“一带一路”沿线国家经贸合作、发挥中资金融机构和中资企业的作用等政策建议。

Since the implementation of RMB cross-border settlement in China in 2009,the RMB cross-border settlement business has developed rapidly.However,there are still some factors that restrict the use of RMB as a cross-border settlement currency.This paper firstly reveals the current situation of RMB cross-border settlement through the data of settlement scales,settlement structure and settlement area distribution,and pointed out the current RMB cross-border settlement of the main problems.Based on the data of“One Belt And One Road”countries,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the driving factors of RMB cross-border settlement.The main influencing factors include China’s import and export trade with countries along the“Belt and Road”,the depth of the financial markets,the level of economic development of the countries along the route and the level of China’s direct investment in the countries.Finally,some policy suggestions are put forward on how to improve the use of RMB in cross-border settlement in countries along the belt and road.