基于SARIMA模型对广东省芒果价格的分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of Mango Price in Guangdong Province Based on SARIMA Model

通过分析广东省芒果批发市场价格的实时监控数据,了解芒果价格变动情况及规律,并运用Eviews软件构建SARIMA模型对广东省芒果月均价格进行短期预测。结果表明,广东省芒果年均价走势虽较为平稳,但在全国芒果市场中的价格优势逐渐弱化,预测结果显示,2020—2021年广东省芒果月均价格走势与往年趋同并略有增长。为恢复广东省在全国芒果市场中的价格优势,建议果农转变原有老旧种植观念,充分利用科技平台和现代农机技术,达到提高芒果产出率和降低生产成本的目的。与此同时,政府部门应针对芒果市场价格预测走势及时做出政策调控,从而实现优化资源配置与促进广东省芒果产业可持续发展的效果。

Based on the analysis of the real-time monitoring data of mango wholesale market price in Guangdong Province,we can understand the changes and rules of mango price,and use the software of Eviews to build the SARIMA model to predict the monthly average mango price in Guangdong Province in a short term.The results showed that although the annual average mango price trend in Guangdong Province is relatively stable,the price advantage in the national mango market is gradually weakened.The forecast results showed that the monthly average mango price trend in Guangdong Province in 2020-2021 is similar to that in previous years and slightly increased.In order to restore the price advantage of Guangdong Province in the national mango market,it is suggested that fruit farmers should make full use of the technology platform and modern agricultural machinery technology while changing the old planting concept,so as to improve the mango output rate and reduce the production cost.At the same time,the government should make timely policy regulation for mango market price forecast trend,so as to optimize resource allocation and promote the sustainable development of mango industry in Guangdong Province.