安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Anhui

目的分析安徽省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征和阶段性特点,探讨新冠肺炎流行规律和感染来源。方法对传染病监测系统中报告的安徽省确诊病例开展流行病学调查,描述疫情的总体流行特征;按照疾病潜伏期和流行曲线,将疫情划分3个阶段(1月10日~1月23日、1月24日~2月6日、2月7日~2月20日),并比较不同阶段的疫情特点和病例分布特征。结果 2020年1月1日~2月29日,安徽省累计报告新冠肺炎确诊病例990例,死亡6例,病死率0.61%;病例分布于全省86个县区(占81.9%),82.73%的病例年龄集中在15~59岁之间,53.84%的病例为男性,农民或工人占41.41%,重型/危重型病例占13.84%。三个阶段的疫情特征有所不同,报告病例分别占20.30%、66.26%和13.43%,病例感染来源中湖北相关暴露的比例由第一阶段的73.13%逐渐下降至5.26%,来源于密切接触者的病例比例由8.96%逐渐上升至78.95%;儿童病例和老年病例比例逐渐增加,重型/危重型比例逐渐下降。结论 2020年上半年安徽省新冠肺炎疫情可分为快速上升期、发病高峰期和疫情下降期三个阶段,针对不同阶段疫情特点,采取针对性防控措施,控制疫情的传播蔓延。

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in Anhui Province,and provide reference for its prevention and control.Methods Epidemiological investigation was carried out on the confirmed cases to describe the overall epidemic characteristics.According to the disease incubation period and epidemic curve,the epidemic situation was divided into three stages(January 10-January 23,January 24-February 6,February 7-February 20),and the epidemic characteristics and case distribution characteristics of different stages were compared.Results As of February 29,2020,990 confirmed cases and 6 deaths had been reported in Anhui Province,with a crude case fatality rate of 0.61%.The cases were distributed in 86 counties of 16 cities in Anhui Province,most of them were aged between 15-59 years(82.73%),53.84% were male,41.41% were farmers or factory-hand,and 13.84% were severe or critical cases.The epidemic characteristics of the three stages were different,the reported cases accounted for 20.30%,66.26% and 13.43% respectively.The proportion of Hubei related exposure in the source of case infection gradually decreased from 73.13% in the first stage to 5.26%,and the proportion of cases from close contacts gradually increased from 8.96% to 78.95%;the proportion of children cases and elderly cases gradually increased,and the proportion of severe/critical cases gradually decreased.Conclusion The epidemic situation in Anhui Province can be divided into three stages: rapid rise,peak and decline.According to the epidemic characteristics of different stages,we should take targeted prevention and control measures to control the spread of the epidemic.