广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征初探

Preliminary analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of Corona Virus Disease 2019 in Guangdong Province

目的了解广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行病学特征。方法收集广东省2020年1月19日~2月25日报告的新型冠状病毒肺炎的每日新增确诊病例,对流行病学特征进行描述性分析,人口迁入数据依据百度迁徙规模指数,对日发病率和人口迁入数据开展相关性统计分析。结果截至2月25日,广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎共报告确诊病例1 347例,累计发病率为1.19/10万,粗病死率0.52%(7/1 347),累计治愈出院人数占比62.44%(841/1 347)。自1月19日报告首例确诊病例后,报告病例数呈快速上升,1月31日当日新增确诊病例127例,达到峰值,之后呈波动下降趋势,2月25日首次出现报告新增确诊病例为0。病例主要集中在珠三角地区,占全省总数的89.98%(1 212/1 347),珠三角地区累计发病率(1.92/10万)高于非珠三角地区(0.27/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ2=647.12,P<0.01),累计发病率最高地区是珠海市(5.18/10万),其次是深圳市(3.20/10万)和广州市(2.32/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ2=55.47,P<0.01)。女性发病率(1.26/10万)高于男性(1.12/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ2=4.97,P<0.05)。广东省日发病率与5天前的人口迁入数据呈正相关关系(相关系数rs=0.38,t0.05,v=2.03,P<0.05)。结论广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情得到阶段性控制,但仍需有序控制外来输入人口流动规模,运用现场流行病学调查手段获得更准确全面信息,采用高效敏感的检测排查手段,提高外防输入控制能力。

Objective To investigate the epidemical characteristics of Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19) in Guangdong Province.Methods The daily new confirmed cases of Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19) in Guangdong Province from January 19 to February 25,2020 were collected for epidemiological descriptive analysis.Spearman rank correlation analysis was conducted with the Baidu migration index and daily incidence in Guangdong Province.Results By February 25,2020,there was 1 347 confirmed case and the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in Guangdong was 1.19/100,000.There was 7 case died,with a fatality rate of 0.52%(7/1 347),and the cumulative discharged proportion was 62.44%(841/1347).On January 31,2020,there was peaking that 127 new cases were diagnosed,then showing a downward trend of volatility,and on February 25,2020,the new confirmed cases were 0.The cases were mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region,accounting for 89.98 percent of the province(1 212/1 347),and the cumulative incidence in the Pearl River Delta region(192/100,000) was higher than that in the non-Pearl River Delta region(0.27/100,000),with statistically significant differences(χ2=647.12,P<0.01).The incidence was 1.26/100,000 in females and 1.12/100,000 in males,with statistically significant differences(χ2=4.97,P<0.05).The regions with the highest cumulative incidence were Zhuhai(5.18/100,000),followed by Shenzhen(3.20/100,000) and Guangzhou(2.32/100,000),with statistically significant differences(χ2=55.47,P<0.01).There was a positive correlation between daily morbidity and 5-day-before migration index in Guangdong Province(Correlation coefficient rs =0.38,t 0.05,v =2.03,P<0.05).Conclusion The epidemic of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 has been basically controlled in Guangdong province,but control measures still need to be taken,to control the scale of foreign input population flow in an orderly manner,and obtain more accurate and comprehensive information by means of field epidemiological investigation,and adopt efficient and sensitive detection and investigation methods,improve the control ability of external defense input.