摘要
在健康中国和全民健身国家战略下,伴随着人口老龄化进程不断加快,体育产业迎来广阔发展机遇。采用理论述评与计量实证相结合的方式,探寻中国人口老龄化与体育产业发展的互动关系。结果显示:1)人口老龄化通过促进体育需求加大,助推体育产业发展;体育产业通过提供适宜于老年群体的体育产品与服务,积极应对人口老龄化。2)中国人口老龄化与体育产业发展之间存在高度线性相关关系(P<0.01)。3)从协整检验结果看,中国人口老龄化与体育产业发展具有长期正向推动作用,并存在人口老龄化增长1%,体育产业提升5.4639%的互动关系。4)从误差修正模型结果看,中国人口老龄化对体育产业发展不具有短期推动作用。5)从Granger因果关系检验结果看,中国人口老龄化与体育产业发展不具有单向和双向的Granger因果关系。
Under the national strategy of healthy China and national fitness,along with the accelerating process of population aging,the sports industry will usher in a broad development opportunity.This paper explores the interactive relationship between China's aging population and the development of sports industry through the combination of theoretical review and quantitative demonstration.The results show that:1)Population aging promotes the development of sports industry by promoting the increase of sports demand,and sports industry actively copes with population aging by providing sports products and services suitable for the elderly.2)There is a highly linear relationship between the aging of China's population and the development of sports industry(P<0.01).3)There is a co-integration relationship between the aging of China's population and the development of sports industry,and there is an aging population growth of 1%and the promotion of the sports industry by 5.4639%.4)There is no short-term equilibrium relationship between China's aging population and sports industry development.5)There is no one-way and two-way Granger causality between China's aging population and sports industry development.
作者
任波
REN Bo(School of P.E., Yancheng Teachers’ University, Yancheng 224002, Jiangsu, China;School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Sport, Shanghai 200438, China)
出处
《山东体育科技》
2020年第4期1-6,共6页
Shandong Sports Science & Technology
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC890035)
江苏省社科基金青年项目(19TYC003)。
