产能过剩与全要素生产率的估算:基于中国钢铁企业的分析

Over-capacity and TFP Estimation:An Analysis Based on China's Iron and Steel Industry

要素充分使用是在新古典增长理论框架下测算全要素生产率(TFP)的一个重要潜在假设,但在现实经济中一些关键行业经常产能过剩。本文利用2004-2013年中国工业企业数据库中钢铁企业的微观数据测算其产能和要素利用率,并计算要素闲置给TFP估算带来的偏差。研究发现,忽略产能过剩会低估钢铁企业TFP增长率5.9个百分点。将TFP增长率分解为前沿技术进步、相对前沿技术效率、资源配置效率及规模效应后,我们发现TFP增长率低估主要源自规模效应的低估。钢铁行业是政府对市场准入重点规制的行业,忽视产能过剩将会妨碍认识钢铁行业的真实状况,影响政府规制效率。

The full employment of production factors is an important assumption when estimating total factor productivity(TFP)within the framework of neoclassical economic theory.However,over-capacity is a normal aspect within some key industries,such as the iron and steel industry.Based on micro-data of iron and steel firms from China's industrial enterprise database for 2004-2013,this paper estimates factor and production capacity utilisation rates and measures the bias in TFP growth due to the over-capacity problem.The study finds that the TFP growth rate of iron and steel firms is underestimated by 5.9%by ignoring over-capacity.Deconstructing TFP growth rate into four components-(i)cutting-edge technological progress;(ii)cutting-edge technology utilisation efficiency;(iii)resource allocation efficiency;and(iv)scale effect-it is found that the bias in TFP growth is mainly due to the underestimation of scale economies.Ignoring over-capacity conceals the understanding of the true status quo of the iron and steel industry,one of the most tightly regulated industries in terms of market access,and this reduces the regulatory effectiveness of the government.