劳动力外流与资金汇回的净减贫效应

The Net Poverty Reduction Effect of Labor Outflow and Capital Return

针对中国国内普遍存在的劳动力外流和资金汇回现象,文章使用4次中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,通过"反事实"模拟分析框架,分析中国劳动力外流与资金汇回的净减贫效应,并分城乡比较不同迁移-汇款路径的减贫效果,揭示中国的减贫路径,服务精准扶贫。结果发现:(1)劳动力外流(迁移)使劳动力输出家庭人均纯收入增加2%~2.5%,家庭贫困发生率、贫困深度和贫困严重程度分别下降3.8%~6.5%、4%~7%、3.9%~6.4%,减贫效果逐年增强;(2)资金汇回(汇款)使家庭收入提高15%~20%,汇款的收入边际效应为0.02%~0.03%,使贫困发生率、贫困深度和贫困严重程度分别下降30%、34%和36%以上;(3)农村-城市迁移汇款路径的增收效应远大于城市-城市迁移汇款路径,二者均有显著的减贫效果,但农村-城市迁移汇款路径降低贫困发生率的效果更好。文章认为,政府应对农民工落户城市采取"不干预"政策,为劳动力流动和外出人员返乡创业提供便利条件。

Using the data of China Family Panel Survey(CFPS),this paper analyses the net poverty reduction effects of labor outflow and capital return.It examines the effects of different migration-remittance paths in China's poverty reduction and alleviation.The results show that:(1)migration increases the per capita net income of labor-sending households by 2%to 2.5%,reduces the incidence,depth and severity of poverty by 3.8%to 6.5%,4%to 7%,3.9%to 6.4%respectively.The effect of poverty reduction increases over time.(2)Remittances of migrant workers increase household income by 15%to 20%with a marginal effect of 0.02%to 0.03%,and reduce the incidence,depth,and severity of poverty by more than 30%,34%,and 36%respectively.(3)Compared with urban-to-urban migration,rural-to-urb an migration has much greater effect in increasing household income.They both have a significant effect in reducing poverty incidence,but rural-to-urban migration and its remittances have much greater effects in reducing the incidence of poverty.The paper suggests that the government should provide convenient conditions for labor mobility and migrant workers to return home and start businesses.