网络外部性对供应链创新技术投资策略的影响

Impact of network externalities on supply chain innovation technology investment strategy

考虑由垄断供应商和双寡头制造商组成的二级供应链,在投资成本外生的条件下,研究网络外部性对供应商投资策略和竞争性制造商创新技术选择的影响。研究发现:(1)当网络外部性较小时,若投资成本较低,供应商同时投资两种技术;若投资成本适中,供应商仅投资一种技术;若投资成本较高,供应商不投资任何技术。(2)当网络外部性较大时,若投资成本较低,供应商最优策略为均投资,否则,为均不投资。(3)当网络外部性较小且技术的市场流失率较低或当网络外部性较大时,制造商会选择差异化的均衡策略,否则均会选择市场份额占比更高的技术。(4)供应商仅投资一项技术时,网络外部性使得制造商利润先增加后减少;同时投资两项技术时,网络外部性使得制造商利润均增加。

With the advancement of technology,emerging technologies in the automotive and software industries have flourished.Although emerging technologies are widely recognized,they also face many problems.High costs keep the emerging technology industry in a difficult position.In order to reduce production costs,more and more companies choose to open patents to attract interested upstream suppliers to invest in them.The investment strategy of suppliers must take into account future consumers’degree of preference for each technology and their respective market prospects.High-tech products often have strong network externalities,which may affect consumers'purchasing decisions.For example,in the mobile phone market,dominated by brands such as Apple and Samsung,most new products will immediately become popular,and stay popular for a while.Therefore,this paper will focus on the impact of network externalities on suppliers’investment strategies and competitive manufacturers’technology production decisions.Consider a secondary supply chain consisting of a single supplier and a duopoly of manufacturers.The two manufacturers each have a patented technology,and the supplier supplies each manufacturer with the raw materials needed for production.In order to keep the production cost of the technologies at a reasonable level,the supplier faces three investment choices;that is,invest in both technologies at the same time,in only one,or in neither.Subsequently,the two manufacturers simultaneously select the technology for production according to market preferences.If the supplier does not invest in either technology,the manufacturer is unable to obtain raw materials,which then hinders production activities.The first step is to establish a supplier investment model under the condition of technology investment cost being exogenous;the next step is to consider the network externalities and preferences of the market,using the Cournot model to build a competitive manufacturer production model,solving the model for the equilibrium production and income of the manufacturer by means of game theory related methods,and from there deriving the expected profit of the supplier;finally,the last step is to determine the optimal decision by comparing and analyzing the expected return of the supplier with corresponding quantitative analysis.Through the above research,it is found that network externalities increase the equilibrium output of the manufacturer while having no effect on the wholesale price of the supplier.The manufacturer's equilibrium strategy is mainly affected by the technology’s market share.Manufacturers always choose technologies with a higher market share.When both network externalities and the market loss rate are small,or network externalities are large and the market share is moderate,manufacturers will be prompted to differentiate their strategic choices.When a supplier invests only in one technology,as network externalities increase,the expected return of the manufacturer increases first and then decreases,possibly in relation to the strength of its competition.When network externalities are small,if the investment cost is low,the supplier will invest in two technologies at the same time;if the investment cost is moderate,the supplier will only invest in one technology;if the investment cost is high,the supplier will not invest in any technology,similarly to traditional cognition.But when network externalities are large,regardless of how the investment cost changes,the supplier will not choose to invest in only one technology.This study enriches the scope of research on network externalities,and the conclusions of this article are intended to provide practical guidance for corporate production and investment strategies.This article can be expanded from the following aspects:1)From the suppliers’point of view,a supplier may have insufficient capacity due to factors such as a small production scale.Therefore,studying the supplier's investment strategy under the condition of capacity constraints may lead to new conclusions;2)From the manufacturers’point of view,competitive manufacturers often have a desire for fairness.Considering the influence of manufacturers'fairness on corporate technology decisions will also be valuable,in terms of decision outcomes and the future direction of this research;3)Further,from the perspective of the upstream and downstream relationships of the supply chain,in reality,it is more common for the supplier to have a shareholding in the technology of the manufacturer.Therefore,when a shareholding relationship exists between the supplier and the manufacturer,is the above conclusion maintained?It is also worth paying attention to this issue.