新型冠状病毒肺炎两种不同流行模式及其防控效果比较:基于广州和温州市的分析

Comparison of two epidemic patterns of COVID-19 and evaluation of prevention and control effectiveness:an analysis based on Guangzhou and Wenzhou

目的比较广州、温州市两个城市新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行模式,并评估两个城市疫情的防控效果。方法获取截至2020年2月29日广州和温州市COVID-19确诊病例的个案数据,绘制两个城市疫情的流行曲线,收集不同时间的防控措施,计算在两个城市的实时再生数。结果广州和温州市分别纳入确诊病例346例和465例,两个城市病例均集中在30~59岁(广州市:54.9%;温州市:70.3%)。流行曲线显示广州和温州市的每日发病数分别在1月27日与1月26日到达峰值,随后出现下降趋势。两个城市的发病高峰均出现在湖北省输入病例的抵达高峰后,且温州市的湖北省输入病例的抵达高峰早于广州市。广州市一直以输入病例为主,温州市从前期的以输入病例为主转变为后期以本地病例为主。虽然两个城市流行模式存在差异,在采取了有力的防控措施后,两个城市均取得了较好的防控效果。结论COVID-19输入疫情可导致两种不同的流行模式,但采取强有力的防控措施,均能有效控制疫情蔓延。

Objective To compare the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Guangzhou and Wenzhou,and evaluate the effectiveness of their prevention and control measures.Methods Data of COVID-19 cases reported in Guangzhou and Wenzhou as of February 29,2020 were collected.The incidence curves of COVID-19 in two cities were constructed.The real time reproduction number(Rt)of COVID-19 in two cities was calculated respectively.Results A total of 346 and 465 confirmed COVID-19 cases were analysed in Guangzhou and Wenzhou,respectively.In two cities,most cases were aged 30-59 years(Guangzhou:54.9%;Wenzhou:70.3%).The incidence curve peaked on 27 January,2020 in Guangzhou and on 26 January,2020 in Wenzhou,then began to decline in both cities.The peaks of imported COVID-19 cases from Hubei occurred earlier than the peak of COVID-19 incidences in two cities,and the peak of imported cases from Hubei occurred earlier in Wenzhou than in Guangzhou.In early epidemic phase,imported cases were predominant in both cities,then the number of local cases increased and gradually took the dominance in Wenzhou.In Guangzhou,the imported cases was still predominant.Despite the different epidemic pattern,the Rt and the number of COVID-19 cases declined after strict prevention and control measures were taken in Guangzhou and in Wenzhou.Conclusion The time and scale specific differences of imported COVID-19 resulted in different epidemic patterns in two cities,but the spread of the disease were effectively controlled after taking strict prevention and control measures.