新能源汽车扩散驱动因素及市场保有量预测研究

Study on Sale Dirving Factors and Car Ownership Prediction of New Energy Vehicles

近几年来,新能源汽车扩散得到了很大的发展。系统地研究驱动新能源汽车扩散的因素并加以利用,小到能够帮助企业据此制定合理的发展战略目标和产品规划,保证企业的可持续发展能力,大到能够推进我国新能源汽车的发展和支持国家战略的实现。文章运用系统动力学理论和方法,先行通过对新能源汽车扩散驱动因素的动态研究,构建出多因素的系统动力学方法新能源汽车推广预测模型。尔后,将从搭建模型中提炼出来的各驱动因素权重与现实情况作对比,从而分析和论证模型的可靠性,最终实现对我国新能源汽车保有量发展的有效预测。

In recent years,the promotion of new energy vehicles has been greatly developed.Systematic research and utilization of the factors driving the spread of new energy vehicles can help enterprises to formulate reasonable development strategic objectives and product planning,ensure the sustainable development ability of enterprises,and promote the development of new energy vehicles in China and support the realization of national strategy.In this paper,using the theory and method of system dynamics,through the dynamic research on the driving factors of new energy vehicle diffusion,a multi factor system dynamics method is established to predict the promotion of new energy vehicles.Then,the weight of each driving factor extracted from the model is compared with the actual situation,so as to analyze and demonstrate the reliability of the model,and at the same time,to predict the development of the number of new energy vehicles in China in the future.