保护治理政策影响下抚仙湖流域水资源供需变化研究

Researchon the Changes of Water Supply and Demand of Fuxian Lake under the Influence of Protection and Governance Policy Implementation

基于抚仙湖保护治理政策实施对现状用水需求的影响分析,在未来社会经济指标预测的基础上,采用用水定额法预测抚仙湖流域中、远期用水需求;综合考虑未来抚仙湖保护治理政策导向,充分考量外流域调水、非常规水源等工程在缓解区域缺水情势中的作用,设置四种供水情景分别对中、远期水资源供需平衡进行分析,提出未来抚仙湖流域供水模式转变及水资源配置格局优化的建议。研究表明,2018年保护治理政策的实施对流域现状用水需求影响较大,需水量整体降低24%;未来在无外流域调水的情况下,维持原有供水模式,到2025、2035年缺水率分别达到26%、30%;未来可通过增加外流域调水和非常规水资源的利用量达到水资源供需平衡。

Based on the analysis of the impact of Fuxian Lake protection and governance policy implementation on the current water demand and the prediction of social and economic index,the method of water quota law method was used to forecast the water demand in the Fuxian Lake watershed in the future.Take the protection and governance policy into consideration as well as the function of basin water transfer projects and unconventional water source projects,four water supply scenarios were set to analyze the water supply and demand in the future.According to the result,the implementation of the protection and governance policy had a great impact on the current water demand in the watershed in 2018,with the water demand reduced by 24%.In the future,without diversion of water from the outer basin and maintain the original water supply pattern,the rate of water shortage will reach 26%and 30%in the years of 2025 and 2035.The balance of water supply and demand will be reached through increasing the diversion of water from the outer basin and utilization ofunconventional water resource.