流行病经济学的理论与实证研究进展

The Progress of Theoretical and Empirical Research on Economic Epidemiology

本文梳理了流行病经济学的理论模型和发展脉络,流行病疫情对劳动供给、消费需求、区域经济和民众行为的影响,以及相应的公共部门干预措施的研究成果。在总结应对重大突发公共卫生事件的理论依据和实证经验基础上,本文为我国流行病经济学的创新性研究和实践提供了发展方向:第一,政府在应对流行病疫情冲击的财政和货币政策效果评估及优化分析中,需要将经济学的分析框架、研究范式和方法与公共卫生管理领域的研究进行有机融合;第二,流行病经济学理论的进一步发展需要在仓室流行病模型的基础上加入人的异质性特征,将不完全信息和行为经济学理论纳入分析框架;第三,流行病经济学理论需要与大数据、人工智能、云计算应用相结合,进行智能化经济预测研究与拓展;第四,公共卫生干预措施的沟通、激励、协调机制设计可以提高公共卫生治理效率。

This paper studies the basic model of Economic Epidemiology and its theoretical development,as well as the empirical research of the pandemic shocks to labor supply,consumption demand,regional economies,human behavioral,and government intervention policies.Summarizing the theoretical basis and empirical evidence for international public health emergencies,and to provide four trends of innovative research and practices for economic epidemiology in China:First,we need to integrate the economic framework and paradigm into public health management to evaluate and optimize the fiscal and monetary policies for pandemic shocks;Second,we could add human heterogeneity to compartmental epidemiological models,and bring incomplete information and behavioral economics into the analytical framework;Third,big data,artificial intelligence and cloud computing will lead economic epidemiology to smart forecast in future extenstion;Fourth,economic epidemiology improves the governance efficiency of public health interventions through mechanism design of communication,incentive,and coordination.