淮河中上游流域土地利用变化与流域径流量相关性分析

Correlation Analysis of Land Usage Change and Runoff in Upper and Middle Reaches of Huai River

以淮河蚌埠测站上游流域为研究区,统计其土地利用情况,并分析流域土地利用和其径流量的相关性.利用1980—2010年的水文气象资料,结合研究区7期遥感影像(1980、1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年),分析了淮河中上游流域多年土地利用变化趋势,以及其多年的W 30d、W 60d洪量变化趋势,使用W 30d,W 60d洪量代表其径流量特征.结果表明,研究区耕地呈减少趋势,建筑居民用地和水域呈增加趋势,其他土地利用类型变化趋势不单调;研究区每年W 30d、W 60d洪量变化不稳定,但其5 a滑动平均值(1980—2005年)以先减后增为大体趋势,最低点在1995年.经过相关性分析得出结论,W 30d、W 60d与土地利用变化存在一定相关关系,也即流域径流量一定程度上受土地利用变化情况的影响.因此,对于流域土地利用方式规划的合理与否,一定程度上影响着流域的安全问题.

Taking the upstream basin of Bengbu Station of Huai River as the study area,the land usage situation was counted,and the correlation between land usage and runoff was analyzed.Based on the hydrometeorological data from 1980 to 2010,combined with 7 periods of remote sensing images(i.e.,1980,1990,1995,2000,2005,2010 and 2015)in the study area,the multi-year land usage change trend in the middle and upper reaches of the Huai River was analyzed.Using W 30d and W 60d flood volumes as the representative of its runoff characteristics,the flood volume change trend was analyzed.The results show that the cultivated land in the study area shows a decreasing trend,the building residential land and water area show an increasing trend,and the change trend of other land use types is not monotonous.The annual W 30d and W 60d flood volume in the study area is unstable.Its 5-year moving average(1980—2005)decreases at first and then increases,and the lowest point is in 1995.Through correlation analysis,it shows that there is a certain correlation between W 30d,W 60d and land usage change,that is,watershed runoff is affected by land usage change to a certain extent.Therefore,whether the land usage planning of the basin is reasonable or not,it affects the safety of the basin to a certain extent.