地方财政压力对产业结构升级的动态影响研究——基于PVAR模型的实证分析

The Dynamic Impact of Local Fiscal Pressure on Upgrading of Industrial Structure——Empirical Analysis Based on the PVAR Model

基于2008-2017年省级面板数据,运用PVAR模型实证检验了地方财政压力对产业结构升级的动态影响。研究结果显示,地方财政压力在一定程度上推动了以第三产业发展为导向的产业结构升级,其中,批发零售业、房地产业等税收贡献较大的行业对地方财政压力的冲击表现出正响应,住宿和餐饮业以及交通运输、仓储和邮政业等税收贡献较小的行业对地方财政压力的冲击呈现出负响应,表明地方政府面对财政压力时的产业发展行为体现出明显的税收导向,但税收贡献较大的金融业却例外地对地方财政压力的冲击表现出负响应。地方财政压力虽然形式上推动了以第三产业发展为导向的产业结构升级进程,但对于优化第三产业内部结构的效果却并不理想,为此,必须下大气力化解地方财政压力,推动产业结构的实质性升级。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2008 to 2017,this paper empirically tests the dynamic impact of local fiscal pressure on industrial structure upgrading using the PVAR model.The results of the study show that local fiscal pressure has a positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure oriented to the development of the tertiary industry.Among them,the industries with large tax contributions such as wholesale and retail trade and real estate industry have responded positively to the shock of local fiscal pressure.Besides,the catering industry,as well as the transportation,warehousing and postal industries,which have less tax contribution,have a negative response to the shock of local fiscal pressure,indicating that the local government’s industrial development behavior in the face of fiscal pressure reflects an obvious tax orientation,but the financial industry with large tax contribution has exceptionally responded negatively to the shock of local fiscal pressures.Although local fiscal pressure has promoted the industrial structure upgrading process oriented to the development of the tertiary industry,it is not ideal for optimizing the internal structure of the tertiary industry.To this end,it is necessary to work hard to resolve local fiscal pressure and to promote substantial upgrading of industrial structure.