基于多隔离策略的新冠肺炎疫情建模及分析

Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 Based on Multi-isolation Strategy

针对已经爆发的新冠肺炎疫情,考虑多隔离措施建立了非线性传染病模型来研究新冠肺炎疫情的趋势.利用新冠肺炎疫情的全国数据与仿真实验结果的对比拟合,说明了隔离措施对于新冠肺炎防控的重要性.结果表明:如果隔离措施晚执行一周,那么整个疫情的感染人数就将增加近7倍.此外,针对湖北省新增临床确诊病例的措施,进行了仿真实验分析,结果表明:该措施有效地解决了之前可能存在漏诊病例的问题,并可以大幅加快疫情的消亡速度.后续官方公布的实际数据也验证了本文的仿真结果.

Aiming at the outbreak of COVID-19(corona virus disease 2019),considering multiisolation measures,a non-linear infectious disease model was established to study the trend of COVID-19.Comparing the data in China of the COVID-19 with the results of simulation experiments,the isolation measures are important for the prevention and control of COVID-19.The results showed that if the isolation measures were implemented one week later,the number of infected persons in the entire epidemic would increase almost 7 times.In addition,the measure for newly confirmed clinical cases in Hubei Province is analyzed by simulation experiments.The results showed that the measure effectively solved the problem of previously missed cases and can greatly speed up the extinction of the epidemic.Then,the subsequent official data of COVID-19 also agreed with the simulation results.