重审风险投资与初创企业生存状况之间的关系:来自微观层面的最新证据

A review of the relationship between venture capital and survival of startups:The recent evidence from the micro level

因准确测度风险投资对初创企业的处理效应存在较大技术难度,风险投资是否有助于改善初创企业的生存环境这一问题尚未形成足够共识。借助大量P2P网贷平台倒闭这一难得的准实验机会,首次系统评估风险投资对P2P平台生存状况的处理效应,为客观认识风险投资对创业企业的影响提供了来自中国微观层面的最新证据。实证结果显示,总体来看,获取风险投资有助于改善被投企业的生存状况。具体地,倾向得分匹配法显示,平均来看,获得风险投资的P2P平台死亡率比未获得风险投资的P2P平台低14%,而存续期长9.13个月。这种差异在剔除内生性偏误、选择性偏差后依然存在,且在不同的匹配方法下均是稳健的。广义倾向得分法进一步揭示,风险投资额对企业生存状态的影响是非线性的,即通常1000万元以上的投资额才能有效延长P2P平台的生存时间,且风险投资额越高,对P2P平台的生存状况的改善越明显。影响机理模型显示,风险投资会通过提供社会资本、提供声誉、提供资金三种途径改善被投企业的生存状态。需要指出的是,因为筛选效应的存在,风险投资更多地发挥着“锦上添花”而非“雪中送炭”效应,不可盲目夸大风险投资的作用。本文初步揭示了风险投资在初创P2P平台存活和行业演进中的作用,为客观认识风险投资对创业企业的影响提供了微观层面的经验证据。

Whether venture capital is capable of improving the survival status of start-ups company is an attractive yet controversial research topic.At present,no consensus has been reached on the positive effect of venture capital,mainly due to endogenous bias and selective bias,which brings enormous difficulties accurately measuring the treatment effect.In recent years a large number of peer-to-peer lending platforms get bankrupt in China after an unexpected rapid growth,which provides a rare quasi-experimental opportunity to systematically assess the effect of venture capital on the survival condition of the platforms.This article aims to probe the following three questions:Can venture capital improve platform survival?Is the impact of venture capital differentiated?What is the mechanism of venture capital?We adopt a python-based crawler software to obtain the detailed information of 3176 platforms from a pubic website,including registered capital,business model,security model,venture capital,amount of venture capital,number of rounds of venture capital.We divide the samples into the treatment group and the control group,respectively,and employ the propensity score matching method and generalized propensity score matching method in the counterfactual framework to modify the selection bias and screening effect to get a more robust conclusion.Finally,it explores the mechanism of venture capital.Our study on the role of venture capital in the survival profile of start-ups and the evolution of the industry has yielded valuable insights.First,empirical evidence shows that acquiring venture capital helps improve the living condition of invested enterprises.Propensity Score Matching method shows that,on average,compared with the control group,these platforms which receive venture investment reveals a 14%lower mortality rate and 9.13 months longer survival time.These differences remain after excluding endogenous bias and selective bias and stay robust under different matching approaches.Second,the decision-making of venture capital institutions is two-stage,with the first stage deciding whether to inject venture capital into the platform.The second stage is to determine the amount of venture capital.The two-part model demonstrates that registered capital and shareholder background affect the amount of venture capital obtained by the platform.The generalized propensity score method reveals that the impact of venture capital is heterogeneous.More specifically,only venture capital more than 10 million Yuan is sufficient to prolong the survival time of platforms.On average,10 million yuan of venture capital increases the survival probability of a platform by 42%to 80%.With the increase in the amount of venture capital,the improvement effect is more significant.Third,the mechanism model confirms that venture capital works for start-ups through three channels,namely bringing in social capital,reputation upgrading,and financial support.Access to venture capital will help P2P platforms join official associations,gain credit recognition from third parties,and achieve capital increases.It is also necessary to point out that venture capital plays a role more"perfect"instead of"timely assistance"because of the screening effect.The function of venture capital is limited,which reminds it is unwise to exaggerate the role of venture capital blindly.Our research has two policy implications:first,to govern improper advertising.A large number of P2P platforms highlight the equity participation of venture capital institutions,which may lead to abuse of venture capital institution's reputation,and may also mislead low risk-preference investors to generate the illusion of implicit guarantees and rigid payments.Second,to control aggressive operation.Quite a few P2P platforms have become more aggressive in their business strategies after getting venture capital.They offer discounts,dividends,and other ways to attract ordinary investors.If this"aggressive operation"continues to fester,it will pose a massive risk to the entire online lending industry.