中国与“一带一路”国家跨境电商大数据广义虚拟经济效率与潜力研究——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析

Efficiency and Potential of Cross-border E-commerce between China and Countries Along the“Belt and Road”--Empirical Analysis Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

从广义虚拟经济视角,在随机前沿引力模型的基础上,估计中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的跨境电商广义虚拟经济效率和潜力,并分析影响跨境电商规模增长的因素,选取2009-2018年中国与“一带一路”沿线61个国家的跨境电商规模为研究样本,实证结果显示:(1)整体的跨境电商广义虚拟经济效率呈现快速提升的发展态势,贸易阻力随时间变化而不断变化,蕴藏巨大的跨境电商潜力;(2)“一带一路”沿线国家的经济规模、互联网普及率和签订自由贸易协定均显著促进跨境电商规模的增长,地理距离对其影响不显著;(3)整体的跨境电商平均效率低于0.5,但跨境电商广义虚拟经济潜力的提升空间较大,高收入国家的跨境电商平均效率最高,中低收入国家增速明显,中高收入跨境电商潜力的提升空间最大。

From the perspective of generalized virtual economy,based on a stochastic frontier gravity model,this paper estimates the generalized virtual economy efficiency and potential of cross-border e-commerce between China and countries along the“Belt and Road”,and analyzes the factors affecting the growth of cross-border e-commerce.From 2009-2018,the scale of cross-border e-commerce between China and 61 countries along the“Belt and Road”is a research sample.The empirical results show that:(1)The overall cross-border e-commerce efficiency shows a rapid development trend,and trade resistance continues to change with time.Changes have huge potential for cross-border e-commerce;(2)The economic scale,internet penetration rate and signing of free trade agreements of countries along the“Belt and Road”have significantly promoted the growth of the scale of cross-border e-commerce,and the geographical distance has no significant impact on it;(3)The overall average efficiency of cross-border e-commerce is less than 0.5,but the potential for improvement of cross-border e-commerce is large.The average efficiency of cross-border e-commerce in high-income countries is the highest,and the growth rate of low-and middle-income countries is obvious,cross-border e-commerce has the greatest potential for improvement.