转型周期下经济脱实向虚的宏观机制研究

A Research on the Macro Mechanism of Economic“Shifting from Real to Fictitious”under the Transition Cycle

如何解释我国当前经济下行和房地产繁荣并存的现象呢?本文基于我国改革开放以来经济发展的事实,构建以出口贸易和金融市场化为驱动力的“转型周期”框架和包含制造业和房地产部门的一般均衡模型。研究表明我国当前的房地产泡沫问题来自于我国转型周期背后动力的转换、动力转换引发了跨部门资本流动以及资产泡沫的相互强化机制,此外房地产泡沫的膨胀也进一步抑制了制造业的发展,而且在经济结构失衡下资产泡沫破灭存在巨大系统性金融风险。建议以推动出口贸易为发力点,加速市场经济改革,培育出口核心竞争优势,此外加大房地产杠杆率管控,弱化住房的金融资产属性,从而阻止过多资金流向房地产部门。

What is the reason for the coexistence of economic downturn and real estate prosperity in China?Based on the facts of economic development since China's reform and opening up,this paper constructs a"transition cycle"driven by liberalization of trade and marketization of financial system,and establishes a general equilibrium model including manufacturing and real estate sectors.It believes that China's current real estate bubble problem comes from China's transformation.The change of the driving power behind the cycle triggered a mutual strengthening mechanism for cross-sector capital flows and asset bubbles.In addition,the expansion of the real estate bubble further inhibited the development of the manufacturing industry.In the imbalance economy,there was a huge systemic financial risk.It is recommended to promote export trade,to accelerate market economic reforms,and to foster export core competitive advantages。At the same time,reducing real estate leverage and suppressing the real estate bubble will be useful to prevent cross sector capital flows which causes the further expansion of the real estate bubble.