基于IOWA算子的我国粮食产量组合预测研究

Research on Combinatorial Prediction of China’s Grain Output Based on IOWA Operator

以1978—2018年我国粮食产量数据为样本,提出基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型,对我国未来5年的粮食产量进行预测。首先建立时间序列ARIMA模型、Holt-winters加法模型和多元线性回归模型,运用3个单项预测模型对1978—2018年间我国的粮食产量进行拟合,然后基于IOWA算子建立以误差平方和最小为准则的组合预测模型,最后运用基于IOWA算子组合预测模型对我国未来5年的粮食产量进行预测。结论表明:基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型具有更高的预测效果,能够使得单项预测模型提供的有效信息得到全面利用,更精准地预测我国粮食产量;我国未来5年的粮食产量还会持续增加,并且每年的平均增长速度为1.3%。

Based on the data of China’s grain output from 1978 to 2018,the combinatorial prediction model based on IOWA operator is proposed to predict China’s grain output in the next five years.Firstly,time series ARIMA model,Holt-winters addition model and multiple linear regression model are set up,and three single prediction models are used to fit China’s grain output from 1978 to 2018.Then Based on IOWA operator,the combinatorial prediction model by minimizing error sum of squares as the criterion is established.Finally,the combinatorial prediction model based on IOWA operator is used to forecast China’s grain output in the next five years.The conclusion shows that the combinatorial prediction model based on IOWA operator has higher prediction effect,can overall use the effective information provided by single prediction model and can more accurately predict China’s grain output.In the next five years,China’s grain output will continue to increase,and the average annual grain growth rate is about 1.3 percent.