震后关键救灾设施中断特征推演模型

An Extrapolation Model of Disruption Characteristics of Critical Relief Facilities Post-earthquake

为了预测震后关键救灾设施的运行状态,为抢险救灾提供决策参考,研究了关键救灾设施中断特征的量化推演问题;在地震灾害演化机理建模的基础上,采用图解评审技术(Graph Evaluation and Review Technique,GERT),构建了震后关键救灾设施中断的演化模型;提出了求解GERT随机网络的数值计算方法。通过逐步加入最新信息,修正GERT随机网络的活动情景和活动参数,优化推演结果;以汶川地震都江堰灾区为例,推演了区域内医疗设施功能中断的演变过程,预测了医疗设施功能中断的概率、持续时间及其方差范围;决策者可根据推演结果采取有针对性的应对措施,也可根据设施中断参数,进一步优化应急物流网络规划决策。

In order to predict the operation status of critical relief facilities(CRFs)post-earthquake,and provide decision-making references for emergency relief,the quantitative deduction problem of disruption characteristics of CRFs was studied based on the modeling of earthquake disaster evolution mechanism.The GERT method was used to formulate the evolution model of CRFs post-earthquake.A numerical method for GERT random network was proposed.By adding the latest information step by step,the activity scenarios and parameters of GERT random network were modified to optimize the deduction results.Finally,a simulation study is carried out for regional medical facilities in disaster area of Dujiangyan in Wenchuan earthquake.The probability,duration and variance of disruptions of medical facilities were predicted.The targeted response measures can be taken based on the deduction results.It can also be used to optimize the decision of the emergency logistics network planning according to disruption parameters of CRFs.