人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响分析——以安徽省为例

Analysis on the Influence of Population Aging on Industrial Structure Upgrading:Taking Anhui Province as an Example

产业发展和人口变动之间密切相关,人口年龄结构的老化可以通过多种途径影响产业结构升级。文章在总结人口老龄化影响产业结构升级的理论基础上,利用2007-2018年安徽省16个地级市的面板数据,采用随机效应模型实证分析了安徽省人口老龄化对产业结构升级的作用。研究发现:安徽省人口老龄化对该省产业结构升级具有显著的促进作用。控制变量中,城镇化率、政府支出和外商直接投资也在不同程度上有利于推动产业结构升级,对外贸易系数对产业结构升级的作用不显著,且回归系数为负。

Industrial development and population change are closely related,and the aging of population age structure can affect the upgrading of industrial structure through many ways.Based on summing up the theory that population aging affects industrial structure upgrading,this paper selects the random effect model to analyze the effect of population aging on industrial structure upgrading in Anhui Province by using the panel data of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province from 2007 to 2018.It is found that the aging population of Anhui Province has a significant role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure of the province.Among the control variables,urbanization rate,government expenditure and foreign direct investment are also beneficial to promote production,in varying degrees.The effect of foreign trade coefficient on the upgrading of industrial structure is not significant,and the regression coefficient is negative.