“一带一路”沿线国家恐怖袭击对中国海外并购影响分析

The Influence of Terrorist Attacks in the Countries Along the Belt and Road on China’s Overseas M&A

伊拉克战争后,世界上85%的恐怖袭击都发生在"一带一路"沿线国家。恐怖主义活动严重影响了当地公共安全,同时也给外商投资带来了巨大的威胁。文章基于两阶段模型,利用2001~2016年中国海外并购数据以及全球恐怖主义数据库,研究了"一带一路"背景下东道国恐怖主义活动与中国海外并购的关系。研究结果表明:中国海外并购总体呈现风险规避特征,但当并购东道国为"一带一路"沿线国家时,公共安全不再是中国海外并购决策的影响因素,中国对"一带一路"沿线国家具有免疫于恐怖主义的投资倾向。文章认为这种免疫力来源于"一带一路"倡议的导向作用、其他投资大国的退避态度以及私营企业的冒险精神,而对伊斯兰教国家和经济增长较慢的"一带一路"沿线东道国,中国海外并购表现出风险偏好倾向。这些研究结论有助于我们更深刻地理解"一带一路"倡议建设实践,并具有重要的政策内涵。

After the Iraq war,85%of the world’s terrorist attacks occurred in the countries along the Belt and Road(B&R).The terrorist activities have seriously affected local public security and also brought enormous threats to foreign investment.Based on the two-stage gravity model,this paper studies the relationship between the terrorist activities in the host country and China’s overseas M&A in the context of B&R with the data of China’s overseas M&A and the Global Terrorism Database(GTD)from 2001 to 2016.The results show that China’s overseas M&A is generally characterized by risk aversion.However,public security is no longer the factor that affects China’s overseas M&A decisions when the host country of M&A is along B&R.China is immune to terrorism when investing to the countries along B&R.The paper holds that this immunity comes from the guiding role of B&R initiative,the retreat attitude of other investment powers and the adventurous spirit of the private enterprises.But for the Islamic countries and the host countries along B&R with slow economic growth,China’s overseas M&A shows a risk preference.These conclusions help us deeply understand the practice of B&R initiative and have important policy implications.