创新型城市建设能否促进产业结构升级——基于双重差分模型的实证分析

Does the Construction of Innovative Cities Promote the Upgrading of Industrial Structure--An Empirical Analysis Based on DID Method

本文将创新型城市建设政策作为一项准自然实验,基于2004—2016年中国城市面板数据,应用双重差分方法考察该政策的实施对试点城市产业结构升级的影响净效应及作用机理。研究发现:创新型城市建设政策显著促进了试点城市产业结构升级,该结论通过稳健性检验依然成立。进一步研究表明:政策通过强化试点城市内企业的创新能力、提升劳动力集聚程度、促使地方政府更好地发挥战略引领作用以及提高金融发展水平,从而促进产业结构升级。基于城市异质性的检验发现,政策对东部沿海城市的平均影响净效应显著高于中西部地区,政策对重点城市的影响效果显著强于普通城市。为此,中央政府有必要持续深入推进创新型城市建设步伐,结合地区资源禀赋和比较优势选取试点城市,以更好打造区域创新中心,进而带动产业结构升级,促进区域持续稳定发展。

This paper analyzes the net effect and mechanism of the policy implementation’s effect on the industrial structure upgrading of pilot cities by using DID method,regarding the innovative city construction policy as a quasi-natural experiment based on the panel data from 2004 to 2016.The research found that the innovative city construction policy significantly promoted the industrial structure upgrading of pilot cities,which remained true after a series of robustness tests.Further research showed that the policy promoted the upgrading of industrial structure by strengthening the innovation ability of enterprises in pilot cities,enhancing the degree of labor agglomeration,encouraging local governments to play a better strategic leading role and improving the level of financial development.Based on the test of urban heterogeneity,it is found that the average net effect of policies on eastern coastal cities is significantly higher than that of central and western regions,and the effect of policies on key cities is significantly stronger than that of ordinary cities.Therefore,it is necessary for the central government to promote the construction of innovative cities continuously and deeply,and to select pilot cities in combination with regional resource endowments and comparative advantages to better build regional innovation centers,and thus promote the industrial structure upgrading and the sustainable and stable development of the region.