科技人才、全要素生产率与装备制造业高质量发展

S&T Talents,TFP and High-Quality Development of Equipment Manufacturing Industry

为充分释放科技人才在推进装备制造业高质量发展中的积极效能,本文基于人力资本理论,在理论刻画科技人才投入对装备制造业高质量发展影响机理的基础上,剖析全要素生产率增长的中介作用并提出研究假设;采用全局参比的DEA-Malmquist方法和多指标综合评价模型测度装备制造业全要素生产率状况和高质量发展水平,借助固定效应和SYS-GMM法探索性构建静态和动态中介效应模型。在此基础上,选取2000—2017年中国装备制造业省级面板数据,采用工具变量法计量检验科技人才对装备制造业高质量发展的影响机理和作用路径并进行内生性检验。研究发现:装备制造业高质量发展水平与经济发展水平高度相关,并呈现"东强西弱"的发展态势。短期内科技人才在推动装备制造业高质量发展中的巨大潜能尚未得到充分释放,且影响效应存在显著区域异质性。全要素生产率增长对科技人才与装备制造业高质量发展间存在显著中介效应,但不同区域表现出差异化的中介效应主导机制。长期内区域装备制造业高质量发展的累积效应明显,且动态模型较静态模型的影响作用和中介效应更为显著。

In order to fully release the positive efficiency of S&T talents in promoting the high-quality development of manufacturing industry this paper describes the influence mechanism of S&T talents,analyzes the intermediary role of Total Factor Productivity(TFP)growth,and puts forward research hypotheses based on the theory of human capital.DEA-Malmquist method and multi-index comprehensive evaluation model are used to measure TFP and high-quality development level,and the intermediary effect model of static and dynamic are constructed by means of fixed effect and SYS-GMM method.On this base the provincial panel data of China’s equipment manufacturing industry of the 30 areas from 2000 to 2017 are selected,and the instrumental variable method is used to measure and test the influence mechanism and path of S&T talents on the high-quality development of equipment manufacturing industry,and the endogenous test is carried out.The results show that the high-quality development level is highly related to the level of economic development.The huge potential of S&T talents has not been fully released in the short term and the influence effect has significant regional heterogeneity.The growth of TFP has a significant intermediary effect,but different regions show different and leading mechanism.In the long run,the cumulative effect is obvious,and the effect of dynamic model is more significant than that of static model.