河南省区域性暴雨过程时空变化分析及定量化评估模型的建立

Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis and Quantitative Evaluation ModelEstablishment of Regional Rainstorm Process in Henan Province

使用河南省111个国家级气象站1956—2016年逐日降水资料,分析了河南省区域性暴雨过程的时空分布特征,结果发现1956年以来全省区域性暴雨过程发生次数存在缓慢上升趋势,且主要出现在7—8月,出现频次空间上呈自西北向东南递增的态势.选取持续天数、过程范围、过程最大日降水量、过程单日最大范围、过程区域平均降水量5个暴雨过程指标,运用标准化方法、百分位法和相关系数法,建立河南区域性暴雨过程综合强度评估模型,并将区域性暴雨过程强度划分为特重、严重、重、中、轻、一般6个等级.查阅《中国气象灾害大典》(河南卷)、河南省月气候评价等历史资料发现,模型评估的区域性暴雨在时间和强度上与史料记载的一致,表明模型评估结果较为科学、合理.初步探索应用区域自动气象站降水资料进行区域性暴雨过程综合强度评估,结果表明,引入区域气象站降水资料虽然对个别评估指标影响较大,但对区域暴雨过程强度评估等级影响较小.

Based on the daily precipitation data of 111 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1956 to 2016,the temporal and spatial features of regional rainstorms were analyzed.The results indicated that the frequency of regional rainstorm had a slowly increasing tendency since 1956,mainly in July and August,and tended to increasingly upwards in space from the northwest to southeast.By using the five indices comprised of rainstorm days,rainstorm area,the maximum of daily precipitation amount,the maximum of daily precipitation area,the averaged-area precipitation amount,the comprehensive intensity assessment model of regional rainstorm was built according to the standardized method,percentile method and the correlation coefficient method.And the intensity of regional rainstorm was divided into six grades including extremely severity,more severity,severity,medium,nearly normal and normal.Further analysis concluded that the results from the comprehensive intensity assessment model and the historical rainstorm events obtained from China Meteorological Disaster and historical data of monthly climate assessment of Henan Province were consistent with each other based on the distribution and intensity of rainstorms,which indicated a scientific and efficient significance of this comprehensive intensity assessment model.In addition,simple exploration suggested that using the daily precipitation data of regional automatic weather stations for the comprehensive intensity assessment of regional rainstorm had greater impact on individual indices,but had little influence on the intensity grade of regional rainstorm.