重特大自然灾害救援效率及影响因素分析

Relief Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Major Natural Disasters

自然灾害的突发性、复杂性、毁灭性决定了提高灾难救援效率的必要性.构建了重特大自然灾害救援效率评价指标体系,选取中国2008—2018年发生的15起重特大自然灾害为研究样本,采用包含非期望产出的超效率SBM模型进行效率测算,并根据不同灾难类型、地区、严重程度进行群组分析.在此基础上,运用Tobit回归模型分析受灾地区经济发展水平、交通运输水平、贸易开放程度对救援效率的影响.结果表明,受灾地区的人均GDP、进出口总额、公路总里程数与救援效率值呈正相关,即经济发展水平、交通运输水平、对外贸易程度均对重特大自然灾害救援效率有着积极影响,应从完善应急管理体制、加强各地区多方面建设、构建救援信息平台三个方面提高重特大自然灾害救援效率.

The suddenness,complexity and destructiveness of natural disasters determine the necessity of improving the efficiency of disaster relief.This paper constructs the evaluation index system of relief efficiency of major natural disasters,a total of 15 natural disasters occurred in China from 2001 to 2018 were selected as research samples.The super-efficiency SBM model including non-expected output was adopted for efficiency measurement,and group analysis was conducted according to different disaster types,regions and severity.On this basis,the Tobit regression model was used to analyze the impact of economic development level,transportation level and trade openness in the disaster area on the rescue efficiency.The results show that there is a positive correlation between GDP per capita and total highway mileage and rescue efficiency,namely,the level of economic development,the level of transportation and foreign trade all have a positive impact on the relief efficiency of major natural disasters.Accordingly,it is supposed to improve the emergency management system,strengthen the construction of various areas,and construct the relief information platform for improving the relief efficiency of major natural disasters.