相对贫困测度与民族地区贫困发生率研究

A Study on Relative Poverty Measure and Poverty Rate in Ethnic Areas of China

2020年是我国决胜全面建成小康社会、消除绝对贫困、完成全部贫困县摘帽的脱贫攻坚任务的收官之年。今后面临的扶贫任务是在巩固已有扶贫成果基础上,防止脱贫人口大面积返贫,解决相对贫困问题,因此,贫困的测度和评价体系也要随之发生改变。本文借助最优社会福利函数理论,构建贫困发生率、贫困线、经济增长和收入不平等测度之间的关系模型,设计以贫困发生率为被解释变量的Logistic回归模型,利用《中国统计年鉴》和《中国农村贫困监测报告》提供的民族地区相关经济指标,对理论模型进行检验,并指出其政策含义。研究表明,计量模型的估计结果与理论模型的预测高度拟合。为应对相对贫困问题,建议以20%的低收入组的人均可支配收入作为相对贫困标准。继续改善民族地区基础设施,增加工资性收入;通过发展产业,增加经营性收入;继续保持一定强度的财政转移支付,通过发展社会救济和慈善事业,增加相对贫困人口的转移性收入。

2020 is the final year for securing a decisive victory for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and eliminating absolute poverty in all poor counties and regions.After that,the goal of the poverty alleviation is to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation,prevent large-scale population returning to poverty and solve the issues of relative poverty.Hence,the poverty measure and evaluation system should be modified accordingly.This paper from the perspective of social welfare function,constructs a theoretical model relating to poverty incidence rate,poverty line,economic growth and income inequality,and designs a Logistics regression analysis model with the poverty incidence rate as the explained variables.The paper also tests the model using the economic indicators of ethnic regions in the China Statistical Yearbook and the Poverty Monitoring Report of Rural China,and puts forward some of its policy implications.The estimate result of the econometric model is highly consistent with the prediction result of the theoretic model.The paper suggests that the per capita disposable income of lowest 20%of the low income groups could be regarded as the standard of the relative poverty.We should improve infrastructure in ethnic regions to increase the wage bill,develop the industries to increase the income from business,and promote the social relief and charity programs to increase the transfer income of the poverty population.